Ledger / Prediction #1116 · narrative · 1H

Will "art" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "art" (8 distinct creators, rank #163). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-10 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.5371457967799296,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18745305467629444
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "art",
    "rank60": 163,
    "share15": 0.0008025682182985554,
    "share60": 0.003732981993851559,
    "total15": 622,
    "total60": 2276,
    "momentum": 0.21499386271362478,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 380,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954852777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18745305467629444
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.035

Log loss0.208

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002488593944421402,
  "shareRatio": 0.6510212097407698,
  "totalAfter": 2411,
  "shareBefore": 0.003923278116826504,
  "totalBefore": 2294,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "art" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.25% (-37%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "art" (1H). momentum contributed -1.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb76e0b30d5b1f5dbc0b915b730c8e0230bea56bd1ccb94aea4c17fd5595d1efa

Previous hashf4e32215d1dae8cf06582bbf5fdece9cd77580c93198a120c1609d8dd63ce5c6