Will "massimo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

105 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "massimo" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45667836565851344,
      "momentum": -0.8369147613315792,
      "diversity": -0.8657142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17567188525538183
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "massimo",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.020064205457463884,
    "share60": 0.04633289415898111,
    "total15": 622,
    "total60": 2276,
    "momentum": 0.43304451020516843,
    "diversity": 0.02857142857142857,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 105,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 380,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954852777777777
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17567188525538183
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014516798009124844,
  "shareRatio": 0.32017047464101295,
  "totalAfter": 2411,
  "shareBefore": 0.045771578029642546,
  "totalBefore": 2294,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity