Ledger / Prediction #1111 · token · 1H

Will $MASSIMO still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link. Rides hot term "followers". Creator launched 142 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "363hEVxVqafRkHH5mzgMRrNTA4W5Sub9G1z5kiF7pump",
    "name": "5M FOLLOWERS ENDORSED",
    "symbol": "MASSIMO",
    "hotTerms": [
      "followers",
      "uxento"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 29,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3080.3656964564534,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 142
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 744,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T21:43:13.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3080.3656964564534,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3080.3656964564534,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3080.3656964564534,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6160.731392912907
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $MASSIMO would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,080, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $MASSIMO (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdbee0fc54b4b30ddcd4f992acb5ea4b34a1ac295d8828e5bf6fab90c5df7ebde

Previous hashc65792f66fb66de4429fd7fe90012a6d6c195024e7c3d3f519f173914fe0c2a4