Ledger / Prediction #1108 · narrative · 24H
Will "monkey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "monkey" (8 distinct creators, rank #145). Last 15m momentum 2.41×.
Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 0.8791822864561705,
"diversity": 0.1666666666666666
},
"rawProbability": 0.5663583434040815
},
"features": {
"term": "monkey",
"rank60": 145,
"share15": 0.010054844606946984,
"share60": 0.0041739894551845345,
"total15": 546,
"total60": 2275,
"momentum": 2.408929086885404,
"diversity": 0.8888888888888888,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 364,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999276273148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5663583434040815
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.188
Log loss0.568
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0028362858604175385,
"shareRatio": 1.1692841409316688,
"totalAfter": 43014,
"shareBefore": 0.0024254035545410078,
"totalBefore": 49064,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 122,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 119
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "monkey" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.28% (+17%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "monkey" (24H). momentum contributed +0.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
3ec71b0599f56f4a3fb8173058b2b128754b4ca0d0a5488c6f32d4f7c5b8aa70Previous hash
5fa39ddea4d9aa221594697c44c6d4a65e80c545f34c4bee3644904eb4c8264e