Ledger / Prediction #1104 · narrative · 6H

Will "paired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "paired" (10 distinct creators, rank #80). Last 15m momentum 1.08×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": 0.07579927587522464,
      "diversity": 0.023076923076923127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4674316879176858
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paired",
    "rank60": 80,
    "share15": 0.006398537477148081,
    "share60": 0.005931458699472759,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 1.0787460220732616,
    "diversity": 0.7692307692307693,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997105092592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4674316879176858
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.284

Log loss0.761

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00772746157041961,
  "shareRatio": 1.5674827369742623,
  "totalAfter": 12035,
  "shareBefore": 0.004923874311629414,
  "totalBefore": 15435,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 93,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "paired" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.77% (+57%). INCORRECT.

— volume was right but too weak on "paired" (6H). volume contributed +0.14 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "paired" (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd7904e03e54f477184c3bb5501bc50d48b4faa103afaa77f48df238ba3552307

Previous hash1d09ff7233d911f212e871da418034372ae1db0eead88e1898063044e5e139df