Ledger / Prediction #1102 · narrative · 6H

Will "universal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "universal" (25 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -3.040182125830343,
      "diversity": -0.20232558139534879
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08755821787767377
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "universal",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0009140767824497258,
    "share60": 0.019112478031634447,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 0.047826178318518986,
    "diversity": 0.5813953488372093,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997105092592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08755821787767377
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012463647694225177,
  "shareRatio": 0.4098666200710583,
  "totalAfter": 12035,
  "shareBefore": 0.003109815354713314,
  "totalBefore": 15435,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "universal" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.12% (-60%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "universal" (6H). momentum contributed -3.04 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf371b94e6f68402242de835f371d9438447cc57e95ca86dd19969a705942ecbc

Previous hash204a4b0efaf056eab0e92a47d9c8886e8cb1ec0c773f4cf319807fab75de425e