Ledger / Prediction #1101 · narrative · 6H

Will "biggest" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "biggest" (5 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 2.85×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 1.0479634872654118,
      "diversity": -0.7636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5318014923248194
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "biggest",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.055758683729433274,
    "share60": 0.019551845342706504,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 2.8518373970379804,
    "diversity": 0.11363636363636363,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997105092592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5318014923248194
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.283

Log loss0.759

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0044038221852928956,
  "shareRatio": 0.48149469719496474,
  "totalAfter": 12035,
  "shareBefore": 0.00919987042436022,
  "totalBefore": 15435,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 142
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "biggest" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.44% (-52%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "biggest" (6H). momentum contributed +1.05 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash204a4b0efaf056eab0e92a47d9c8886e8cb1ec0c773f4cf319807fab75de425e

Previous hash2152e2adf5e620e2ea52d7f441a682ba8179c253da6cc4b8efc749868e92986d