Will "agents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
19 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "agents" (19 distinct creators, rank #43). Last 15m momentum 1.39×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.200250160009851,
"momentum": 0.32711370415613067,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6288680655554163
},
"features": {
"term": "agents",
"rank60": 43,
"share15": 0.011882998171846435,
"share60": 0.008567662565905097,
"total15": 546,
"total60": 2275,
"momentum": 1.3869591712370506,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 19,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 364,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982630555555555
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6288680655554163
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00870285951098218,
"shareRatio": 1.04181802731927,
"totalAfter": 2413,
"shareBefore": 0.008333333333333333,
"totalBefore": 2280,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 21,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 19
}Predicted 63% that "agents" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.83% → 0.87% (+4%). PARTIAL.
— "agents" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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