Ledger / Prediction #1090 · narrative · 24H
Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 31% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 2404 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (33 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.
Made2026-10-10 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": -1.3421534555389212,
"diversity": 0.020930232558139573
},
"rawProbability": 0.31019037191601956
},
"features": {
"term": "bot",
"rank60": 12,
"share15": 0.004725897920604915,
"share60": 0.01808731808731809,
"total15": 528,
"total60": 2404,
"momentum": 0.2612824022771223,
"diversity": 0.7674418604651163,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 33
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 360,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9927038888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996959953703703
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.31019037191601956
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.476
Log loss1.171
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006610800744878957,
"shareRatio": 1.4553323869466541,
"totalAfter": 42960,
"shareBefore": 0.004540272009121264,
"totalBefore": 49116,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 284,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 223
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 31% that "bot" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.66% (+46%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "bot" (24H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
59b6de04d553351a58f20fcba28c52c59ab1aadd56e71ae10097cad2f95dc83dPrevious hash
9aca1916508760a57cb85fbe5ec2960c8b0bc5282b8c577e605cc8a8061d28c6