Ledger / Prediction #1083 · narrative · 1H

Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2404 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (33 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-10 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -1.3421534555389212,
      "diversity": 0.020930232558139573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21442449707771974
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bot",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.004725897920604915,
    "share60": 0.01808731808731809,
    "total15": 528,
    "total60": 2404,
    "momentum": 0.2612824022771223,
    "diversity": 0.7674418604651163,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 360,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927038888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21442449707771974
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.046

Log loss0.241

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017436791630340018,
  "shareRatio": 0.10903763804372323,
  "totalAfter": 2294,
  "shareBefore": 0.017783291976840365,
  "totalBefore": 2418,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "bot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.78% → 0.17% (-90%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bot" (1H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash54fabff41221238d35c84c07034d9d7c8d31e0439e2afa82d3c8ea4f8b29705e

Previous hash6ea3dfd94c970e0397e5c1938b1e46ef2b20ecb277de711fafff086f2d6be3d1