Will "trump" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2404 launches in the last hour referenced "trump" (37 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.65×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -0.43159339837375116,
      "diversity": -0.04615384615384612
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3949680541567546
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trump",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.014177693761814745,
    "share60": 0.02182952182952183,
    "total15": 528,
    "total60": 2404,
    "momentum": 0.6494733999459897,
    "diversity": 0.7115384615384616,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 360,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927038888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3949680541567546
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012205754141238012,
  "shareRatio": 0.5721879863056334,
  "totalAfter": 2294,
  "shareBefore": 0.021505376344086023,
  "totalBefore": 2418,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity