Ledger / Prediction #1073 · narrative · 24H
Will "supra" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
82 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "supra" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.
Made2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4195922002245229,
"momentum": -0.2159434273043392,
"diversity": -0.8560975609756097
},
"rawProbability": 0.34836713715946516
},
"features": {
"term": "supra",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.024786324786324785,
"share60": 0.03076062639821029,
"total15": 584,
"total60": 2681,
"momentum": 0.8057808857808858,
"diversity": 0.036585365853658534,
"launches15": 14,
"launches60": 82,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 372,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99547,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.99981125
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.34836713715946516
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.425
Log loss1.054
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.026941583951277343,
"shareRatio": 1.0833375726299628,
"totalAfter": 43019,
"shareBefore": 0.024869561686663825,
"totalBefore": 49257,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1159,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 1225
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 35% that "supra" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.49% → 2.69% (+8%). PARTIAL.
— "supra" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
69f40490e1ec01738562162b32faf8642bd3c93db28f1314d90460de4844b7b8Previous hash
8ad0f862e0484728c11bef346666ddb03d6ac860da96d0345304b32fc978ef70