Ledger / Prediction #1072 · narrative · 6H

Will "dies" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

16 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "dies" (10 distinct creators, rank #84). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

Made2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.17447262147085213,
      "momentum": -0.0278911958013995,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42497259842299834
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dies",
    "rank60": 84,
    "share15": 0.005982905982905983,
    "share60": 0.006152125279642058,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.9724941724941726,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 16,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99547,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999245
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42497259842299834
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.181

Log loss0.553

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008566311034966124,
  "shareRatio": 0.7527033340769519,
  "totalAfter": 12841,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011576307158016593,
  "totalBefore": 15549,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "dies" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.09% (-26%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dies" (6H). diversity contributed -0.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8ad0f862e0484728c11bef346666ddb03d6ac860da96d0345304b32fc978ef70

Previous hashe7c0c18428ee7596278b86220b84e5e66d6345e9c5cd28bf3b65cb9c58afddf5