Ledger / Prediction #1068 · narrative · 1H

Will "calls" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "calls" (9 distinct creators, rank #162). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.

Made2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.5241773864986402,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6484756305690219
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "calls",
    "rank60": 162,
    "share15": 0.005982905982905983,
    "share60": 0.0035421327367636092,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 1.6890688259109312,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99547,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99547
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6484756305690219
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.421

Log loss1.046

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008771929824561404,
  "shareRatio": 0.3103440319342855,
  "totalAfter": 2280,
  "shareBefore": 0.00334696913350688,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "calls" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.09% (-74%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "calls" (1H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash79363b564398ff9aa78ee776c54d67a70371797e9466e77db6f8828a3c863517

Previous hashb6abe96539e5117d70ed1cf3e7854dd393670046810cd7d3ec75531bf8c3dc27