Ledger / Prediction #1067 · narrative · 1H

Will "supra" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "supra" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.

Made2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": -0.2159434273043392,
      "diversity": -0.8560975609756097
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27839261767473683
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "supra",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.024786324786324785,
    "share60": 0.03076062639821029,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.8057808857808858,
    "diversity": 0.036585365853658534,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99547,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99547
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27839261767473683
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.078

Log loss0.326

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02763157894736842,
  "shareRatio": 0.8968385018651868,
  "totalAfter": 2280,
  "shareBefore": 0.030866493120119003,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "supra" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.09% → 2.76% (-10%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "supra" (1H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb6abe96539e5117d70ed1cf3e7854dd393670046810cd7d3ec75531bf8c3dc27

Previous hashf3e1a76fcc36ed41d0457de45a2ddb7e516cd072bc68f88114559ebfb85859ed