GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1066 · narrative · 1H

Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (58 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.

Made2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": 0.09461472681141521,
      "diversity": -0.08117647058823527
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5345499168824244
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "call",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03504273504273504,
    "share60": 0.031879194630872486,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 1.0992352676563202,
    "diversity": 0.6823529411764706,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 58
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99547,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99547
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5345499168824244
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.286
Log loss0.765
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004824561403508772,
  "shareRatio": 0.15862028298863481,
  "totalAfter": 2280,
  "shareBefore": 0.03161026403867609,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "call" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.16% → 0.48% (-85%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "call" (1H). volume contributed +0.42 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf3e1a76fcc36ed41d0457de45a2ddb7e516cd072bc68f88114559ebfb85859ed
Previous hashe2058ba182e8244977d8d38835d71df08f895b3dd23473f499e671aae72dbf16