Ledger / Prediction #1062 · token · 6H

Will $MASSIMO still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HHvKJ1j37CdniSdPWFfEb59rJhNkHtPCG5wc1BEtWjKt",
    "name": "biggest endorse in history of X",
    "symbol": "MASSIMO",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 44,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3056.9376362669846,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 1003,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3056.9376362669846,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3056.9376362669846,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6113.875272533969
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $MASSIMO would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,057, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $MASSIMO (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe3c560555fc8afb8ac39baf4a587d361d0f3ad48f19ff518b946396923b20a1b

Previous hashae9abb04d3a990017c1f613e2fef6e1dbcfe247abd645f32d3812a507aa7f29a