GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1060 · narrative · 24H

Will "nigga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "nigga" (6 distinct creators, rank #320). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.

Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.48949051691923223,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5270783240644438
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigga",
    "rank60": 320,
    "share15": 0.003875968992248062,
    "share60": 0.0023757309941520467,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2735,
    "momentum": 1.631484794275492,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 375,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.998525,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999385416666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5270783240644438
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.224
Log loss0.640
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002291613620055091,
  "shareRatio": 1.547580784084385,
  "totalAfter": 43201,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014781217729361977,
  "totalBefore": 49387,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 99,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 73
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "nigga" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.23% (+55%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nigga" (24H). momentum contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash411c6dcb7e4f93546caa35c5afbe3bc7d85be433ff31fa2a21488a91ae9fe527
Previous hasha9a2117212700b9bc75e7a39049ff3a20e6abd90f22028b36e272f16bd5f9f9e