Ledger / Prediction #106 · token · 6H

Will $HANS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 15 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2sMxDr8NYAJrcUcvt7aWzDyn7MxFYdirAz4BtARFpump",
    "name": "HANS",
    "symbol": "HANS",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 24,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1573.218499952877,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 15
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 451,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T10:36:40.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 4573.422820380887,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4609.714168577813,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1573.218499952877,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $HANS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $4,573, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $HANS (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4d4d79f8167cc68d9f61828a87e1a9b8484097c83670750c8af5a7d66e94faa7

Previous hasha90a6c720ba71a2536b0b4cd942719dff6001cd4b037b809222e02de0e70772d