Ledger / Prediction #1054 · narrative · 6H

Will "satoshi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "satoshi" (41 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -2.252176294981963,
      "diversity": -0.07999999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15820988070295594
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "satoshi",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.002325581395348837,
    "share60": 0.022112573099415205,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2735,
    "momentum": 0.10517009417643666,
    "diversity": 0.6833333333333333,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 375,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.998525,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997541666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15820988070295594
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.025

Log loss0.172

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006874952257275991,
  "shareRatio": 0.17293353204450942,
  "totalAfter": 13091,
  "shareBefore": 0.004164264206547505,
  "totalBefore": 15609,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "satoshi" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.07% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "satoshi" (6H). momentum contributed -2.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash437beadbe41b855a4b7457e40279c784d35d144afba798e8a37f5d2a669c20b4

Previous hashcd9098e606501b64fa1c8f311d5a0d15a06223617fb2e8e03dbe472297cae2ab