GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1052 · narrative · 1H

Will "keeps" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "keeps" (9 distinct creators, rank #184). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.4464731318355414,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6305649301638457
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keeps",
    "rank60": 184,
    "share15": 0.005426356589147287,
    "share60": 0.003472222222222222,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2735,
    "momentum": 1.5627906976744186,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 375,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.998525,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998525
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6305649301638457
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.136
Log loss0.461
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0037220843672456576,
  "shareRatio": 1.1326994625878462,
  "totalAfter": 2418,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032858707557502738,
  "totalBefore": 2739,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "keeps" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.37% (+13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "keeps" (1H). momentum contributed +0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash450212f21cde10c7ff357451ede1cb812ffa8cab192bdd619093fa66628967a3
Previous hash21183e2a03368a67a918e4b0901ad529a3dfe95794d2f5818e8c365491325065