Ledger / Prediction #1052 · narrative · 1H
Will "keeps" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "keeps" (9 distinct creators, rank #184). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.
Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 0.4464731318355414,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6305649301638457
},
"features": {
"term": "keeps",
"rank60": 184,
"share15": 0.005426356589147287,
"share60": 0.003472222222222222,
"total15": 644,
"total60": 2735,
"momentum": 1.5627906976744186,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 375,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.998525,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.998525
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6305649301638457
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.136
Log loss0.461
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0037220843672456576,
"shareRatio": 1.1326994625878462,
"totalAfter": 2418,
"shareBefore": 0.0032858707557502738,
"totalBefore": 2739,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 9
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 63% that "keeps" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.37% (+13%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "keeps" (1H). momentum contributed +0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
450212f21cde10c7ff357451ede1cb812ffa8cab192bdd619093fa66628967a3Previous hash
21183e2a03368a67a918e4b0901ad529a3dfe95794d2f5818e8c365491325065