Ledger / Prediction #1051 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
87 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (79 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.
Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42847053093307247,
"momentum": 0.2120416207474804,
"diversity": 0.1896551724137931
},
"rawProbability": 0.6295221368103266
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.03953488372093023,
"share60": 0.031980994152046784,
"total15": 644,
"total60": 2735,
"momentum": 1.2361993355481729,
"diversity": 0.9080459770114943,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 87,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 79
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 375,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.998525,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.998525
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6295221368103266
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.396
Log loss0.993
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.024400330851943756,
"shareRatio": 0.7702356345597353,
"totalAfter": 2418,
"shareBefore": 0.03176341730558598,
"totalBefore": 2739,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 59,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 87
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 63% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.18% → 2.44% (-23%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
21183e2a03368a67a918e4b0901ad529a3dfe95794d2f5818e8c365491325065Previous hash
5ebe515a37faac1e9ce8365df917c4849d2094690542be08f8b59e746c1b870f