Ledger / Prediction #1045 · token · 1H

Will $KOI still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 12 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0280739129472569
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GTwz7RR65Niuk1X4hgRin7GwZGqcdKqoFaMuyrTPpump",
    "name": "$KOI ",
    "symbol": "KOI ",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 168,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3763.949050902575,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 12
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 813,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0280739129472569
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.029

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T20:40:17.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2.4124933623284877,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7472.425781671268,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3763.949050902575,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7527.89810180515
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $KOI would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $KOI (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf3dfdd081d8b020d4a4a5dbf22cbbe89ca573039422d450a40d1f4b11b71dbca

Previous hashd310eecdcba21ee197794707d511255038d98ad73e76ebff6089ed8eed5b44c9