Ledger / Prediction #1043 · narrative · 24H

Will "xarena" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "xarena" (23 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": -0.31041140432473757,
      "diversity": -0.41578947368421054
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38211530887692274
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "xarena",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.01622002820874471,
    "share60": 0.022123893805309734,
    "total15": 708,
    "total60": 2598,
    "momentum": 0.733145275035261,
    "diversity": 0.40350877192982454,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 385,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997307175925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38211530887692274
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.146

Log loss0.481

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002305847629588637,
  "shareRatio": 0.20758586327440856,
  "totalAfter": 43368,
  "shareBefore": 0.001156186612576065,
  "totalBefore": 49300,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "xarena" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.02% (-80%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "xarena" (24H). diversity contributed -0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4d37b7532266ee84c8df3cb762fbbecc1fae65fb1c8414723804b1d7e4af3920

Previous hashc0b1a37c68325d79d2a09407ea8a993212d2a22a38db64dbdc3fb049a21fdf03