Ledger / Prediction #1038 · narrative · 6H
Will "cluck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
57 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "cluck" (31 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.
Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3650420033100675,
"momentum": 0.0506019412125929,
"diversity": -0.24736842105263154
},
"rawProbability": 0.4545738240871012
},
"features": {
"term": "cluck",
"rank60": 12,
"share15": 0.0232722143864598,
"share60": 0.022123893805309734,
"total15": 708,
"total60": 2598,
"momentum": 1.051904090267983,
"diversity": 0.543859649122807,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 57,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 385,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989228703703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4545738240871012
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 02:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.207
Log loss0.606
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.009607802999287329,
"totalAfter": 13527,
"shareBefore": 0.00381428383532816,
"totalBefore": 15206,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 58
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 45% that "cluck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.38% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "cluck" (6H). diversity contributed -0.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
662fd89634a56288bf9752a99e1d0bffceffaae67bfc1edee0776b9e5fbd5db8Previous hash
98e37ec78d1419befe32cbd9bda271a737c9ee2daa24057b304862c80a54dd33