Ledger / Prediction #1036 · narrative · 1H
Will "golden" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "golden" (6 distinct creators, rank #308). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.
Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": -0.16731056068406422,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.4650664270639929
},
"features": {
"term": "golden",
"rank60": 308,
"share15": 0.0021156558533145277,
"share60": 0.002500961908426318,
"total15": 708,
"total60": 2598,
"momentum": 0.8459368558099165,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 385,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4650664270639929
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.286
Log loss0.766
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00334696913350688,
"shareRatio": 1.4197026022304833,
"totalAfter": 2689,
"shareBefore": 0.002297090352220521,
"totalBefore": 2612,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 6
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 47% that "golden" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.33% (+46%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "golden" (1H). momentum contributed -0.17 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5469b4c179285b26f0d5b3550a2c0a5a5ca601dcd936160e6580c91ed746b95dPrevious hash
3e32613ae2f36de7de55d43527332babb158fea2f1b94965c513d7aea8b26a39