Ledger / Prediction #1035 · narrative · 1H

Will "call" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

101 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "call" (9 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45085239066107385,
      "momentum": -0.9696570332090015,
      "diversity": -0.7930693069306931
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16632860286742082
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "call",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.014809590973201692,
    "share60": 0.03905348210850327,
    "total15": 708,
    "total60": 2598,
    "momentum": 0.3792130732941005,
    "diversity": 0.0891089108910891,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 101,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 385,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16632860286742082
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.028

Log loss0.182

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03161026403867609,
  "shareRatio": 0.818252238723973,
  "totalAfter": 2689,
  "shareBefore": 0.0386676875957121,
  "totalBefore": 2612,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 85,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 101
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "call" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.87% → 3.16% (-18%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "call" (1H). momentum contributed -0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3e32613ae2f36de7de55d43527332babb158fea2f1b94965c513d7aea8b26a39

Previous hash0f77657558bac4386be50f87a333733d88fcd89e5abf749e1a239019083ccfbd