Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2567 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (47 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.18978012569043404,
      "diversity": -0.22857142857142854
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49227333290917236
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.039781591263650544,
    "share60": 0.03290498442367601,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2567,
    "momentum": 1.2089837439651432,
    "diversity": 0.5595238095238095,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 47
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 412,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993382870370371
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49227333290917236
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.025659455185797455,
  "shareRatio": 2.0542370983558222,
  "totalAfter": 13913,
  "shareBefore": 0.012474713418745786,
  "totalBefore": 14830,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 357,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 185
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity