Ledger / Prediction #102 · narrative · 6H
Will "qseal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
63 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "qseal" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.98×.
Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3800545220936148,
"momentum": 1.0931651662479518,
"diversity": -0.8238095238095238
},
"rawProbability": 0.5385699998610635
},
"features": {
"term": "qseal",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.13581730769230768,
"share60": 0.04551971326164875,
"total15": 415,
"total60": 1394,
"momentum": 2.983703058752271,
"diversity": 0.06349206349206349,
"launches15": 56,
"launches60": 63,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 160,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999894907407407
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5385699998610635
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.290
Log loss0.773
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006837472492926752,
"shareRatio": 0.8405241093389849,
"totalAfter": 12724,
"shareBefore": 0.008117510630073444,
"totalBefore": 7761,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 87,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 63
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "qseal" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.81% → 0.68% (-16%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "qseal" (6H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e6f659215700048e3e1acd35bd03f1e31ba656f9112d953ae92f5796e9059cc6Previous hash
38d21654dea1b68ce73bd2acd2fa938b6ee181a4de1c286edb1d67cf1fdfc09d