Ledger / Prediction #1019 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
93 of 2567 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (64 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.
Made2026-10-10 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43847423710787337,
"momentum": 0.12703650458671692,
"diversity": -0.0741935483870967
},
"rawProbability": 0.5476839419396025
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.041341653666146644,
"share60": 0.03640965732087227,
"total15": 640,
"total60": 2567,
"momentum": 1.1354584664670009,
"diversity": 0.6881720430107527,
"launches15": 26,
"launches60": 93,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 64
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 412,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960297222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960297222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5476839419396025
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.300
Log loss0.793
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03176341730558598,
"shareRatio": 0.8708434712084349,
"totalAfter": 2739,
"shareBefore": 0.036490683229813664,
"totalBefore": 2576,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 87,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 94
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.65% → 3.18% (-13%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.44 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
13561ff4727579315c4898be3d1e5a1502185ce972261b8691deba48eed283c6Previous hash
2e2f0f625252fe0f1320d9acc7e9823d7bc71b9ca688da64e69bc8b8d28b50c2