GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1019 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2567 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (64 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

Made2026-10-10 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": 0.12703650458671692,
      "diversity": -0.0741935483870967
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5476839419396025
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.041341653666146644,
    "share60": 0.03640965732087227,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2567,
    "momentum": 1.1354584664670009,
    "diversity": 0.6881720430107527,
    "launches15": 26,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 64
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 412,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960297222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5476839419396025
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.300
Log loss0.793
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03176341730558598,
  "shareRatio": 0.8708434712084349,
  "totalAfter": 2739,
  "shareBefore": 0.036490683229813664,
  "totalBefore": 2576,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 87,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 94
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.65% → 3.18% (-13%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.44 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash13561ff4727579315c4898be3d1e5a1502185ce972261b8691deba48eed283c6
Previous hash2e2f0f625252fe0f1320d9acc7e9823d7bc71b9ca688da64e69bc8b8d28b50c2