Ledger / Prediction #1016 · token · 6H

Will $SOL LOON still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3vS9cTarFK7jb2hSy9NM4rqFZ6MAisVobUYtkJTBpump",
    "name": "Solana Ballon",
    "symbol": "SOL LOON",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4771.676804823708,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 888,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T20:40:12.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3092.409066764951,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7369.19121226967,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4771.676804823708,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 9543.353609647416
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $SOL LOON would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,092, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $SOL LOON (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash85edf69ce28974c7e452ba5ed80eae482792c01a431e6a64cf4d1929388f48b5

Previous hash1017855f12894df3838febae97dc734f66e1d52ca6ef90dc170c57326a1b5d7b