Will "permanentcards" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "permanentcards" (23 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -3.117164826101279,
      "diversity": -0.3588235294117647
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13425899054264828
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "permanentcards",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0008605851979345956,
    "share60": 0.019433962264150943,
    "total15": 580,
    "total60": 2649,
    "momentum": 0.04428253931119763,
    "diversity": 0.45098039215686275,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 423,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999618981481482
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13425899054264828
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.010996784121351086,
  "totalAfter": 43536,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010342310188189488,
  "totalBefore": 49312,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity