GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #101 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (17 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.56×.

Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": 0.9384676859634391,
      "diversity": -0.6126760563380281
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5514780823730364
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1310096153846154,
    "share60": 0.05125448028673835,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1394,
    "momentum": 2.5560617267348036,
    "diversity": 0.23943661971830985,
    "launches15": 54,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999894907407407
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5514780823730364
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.304
Log loss0.802
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0237346746306193,
  "shareRatio": 0.7083265142973502,
  "totalAfter": 12724,
  "shareBefore": 0.03350083752093802,
  "totalBefore": 7761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 302,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 260
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.35% → 2.37% (-29%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +0.94 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash38d21654dea1b68ce73bd2acd2fa938b6ee181a4de1c286edb1d67cf1fdfc09d
Previous hash774924025cbf9622443a932967bec138700e634d95297de44a6cd019068255fe