Will "wand" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "wand" (4 distinct creators, rank #88). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": -0.7511193791900076,
      "diversity": -0.5571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24830486947595382
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wand",
    "rank60": 88,
    "share15": 0.0025817555938037868,
    "share60": 0.005471698113207547,
    "total15": 580,
    "total60": 2649,
    "momentum": 0.4718380912813817,
    "diversity": 0.2857142857142857,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 423,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998475925925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24830486947595382
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002868537046106486,
  "shareRatio": 1.518064795146088,
  "totalAfter": 14293,
  "shareBefore": 0.0018778689664765613,
  "totalBefore": 14378,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity