Ledger / Prediction #1006 · narrative · 6H
Will "spacex" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
107 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "spacex" (61 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.40×.
Made2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4595086383041708,
"momentum": 0.8743139527130346,
"diversity": -0.21588785046728978
},
"rawProbability": 0.6183508581753443
},
"features": {
"term": "spacex",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0972461273666093,
"share60": 0.040566037735849055,
"total15": 580,
"total60": 2649,
"momentum": 2.3972301164792063,
"diversity": 0.5700934579439252,
"launches15": 56,
"launches60": 107,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 61
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 423,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998475925925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6183508581753443
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.382
Log loss0.963
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.008045896592737703,
"shareRatio": 0.8903205106555439,
"totalAfter": 14293,
"shareBefore": 0.009041591320072333,
"totalBefore": 14378,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 115,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 130
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "spacex" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.90% → 0.80% (-11%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "spacex" (6H). momentum contributed +0.87 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
22d2d07777ada9d35c3eb78560fe21510e2f2ec71acbcc39cb294866f2c5459ePrevious hash
6204e4f9f2ecfba8ce82203cf0ebd1d4ef9d5868e3c5739dbd28c867e589dfc3