Ledger / Prediction #1004 · narrative · 1H

Will "spacexsi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "spacexsi" (24 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

Made2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.5271918215635892,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3268992988136329
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "spacexsi",
    "rank60": 20,
    "share15": 0.00946643717728055,
    "share60": 0.016037735849056604,
    "total15": 580,
    "total60": 2649,
    "momentum": 0.5902602004657285,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 423,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990855555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3268992988136329
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.107

Log loss0.396

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013782542113323124,
  "shareRatio": 0.8729564845455977,
  "totalAfter": 2612,
  "shareBefore": 0.015819209039548022,
  "totalBefore": 2655,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "spacexsi" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.58% → 1.38% (-13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "spacexsi" (1H). momentum contributed -0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashff709373827a22faffa5d98a9e05ded845595779eef2da129d6298266ff0ea80

Previous hash5cfef904508d3463853cbe0dcdee22e25af60e6b6bb4d8e5f16b769db0068aae