Ledger / Prediction #1002 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (74 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

Made2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": -0.2624992673365072,
      "diversity": -0.20078740157480318
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.430925951925217
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.03700516351118761,
    "share60": 0.048113207547169815,
    "total15": 580,
    "total60": 2649,
    "momentum": 0.7691269278795855,
    "diversity": 0.5826771653543307,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 74
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 423,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990855555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.430925951925217
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.186

Log loss0.564

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02565084226646248,
  "shareRatio": 0.5381238603363274,
  "totalAfter": 2612,
  "shareBefore": 0.04783427495291902,
  "totalBefore": 2655,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.78% → 2.57% (-46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.26 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash20c0f48d1daa1f402098582fdb07027e176ace44d235683851d73817a01cbb7a

Previous hash835d2313c80d8c2512b98169dd7b09adaee14d7b660727162080cb59c0ecd8a8