Ledger / Prediction #1001 · narrative · 1H
Will "sxsi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
158 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "sxsi" (78 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.97×.
Made2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.5179735680889299,
"momentum": 0.6786433140792009,
"diversity": -0.30759493670886073
},
"rawProbability": 0.6431407031135884
},
"features": {
"term": "sxsi",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.11790017211703958,
"share60": 0.059811320754716985,
"total15": 580,
"total60": 2649,
"momentum": 1.9712016158369392,
"diversity": 0.4936708860759494,
"launches15": 68,
"launches60": 158,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 78
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 423,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990855555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6431407031135884
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.414
Log loss1.030
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01110260336906585,
"shareRatio": 0.1891826960803843,
"totalAfter": 2612,
"shareBefore": 0.05951035781544256,
"totalBefore": 2655,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 158
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "sxsi" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.95% → 1.11% (-81%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "sxsi" (1H). momentum contributed +0.68 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
835d2313c80d8c2512b98169dd7b09adaee14d7b660727162080cb59c0ecd8a8Previous hash
2badfc9b2f51bf93a211d892f0f32ff5caf1fa3b1d8c8c32a4ac81e877052576